Will Israel and Syria Make Peace?

Can two neighbors who have fired shells at each other for three‑quarters of a century sit down and sign the one document that has eluded every American, Russian, or Arab mediator since 1948? That is the billion‑dollar question ricocheting around Jerusalem, Damascus, and Washington this month.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Syria's new ruler al-Sharaa on the backdrop of Israel-Syria map, Shutterstock

A Long Record of Blood and Missed Chances

From the start, Syria opposed Israel: it invaded in 1948, joined Egypt in the June 1967 war, and launched the October 1973 surprise that nearly split Israel in half. Syria thought it would see the destruction of Israel, but it actually lost not just the war but also the Golan Heights, which are still under Israeli rule.

Fast-forward to 2000, when Bashar al-Assad inherited power from his father. Assad doubled down on that hostility. His hate for Israel has turned Syria into an Iranian base. He allowed Iran to use Syrian territory for military purposes and to send shipments of weaponry through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel responded with hundreds of pinpoint airstrikes that kept Iranian missiles off its northern border. Israel actually said it will not allow any Iranian presence in Southern Syria, which borders Israel.

Damascus, Syria -May, 2022: Portrait image of Bashar al-Assad, President of Syria, Shutterstock

The Regime Collapse No One Believed Would Happen

On December 8, 2024, after a brutal civil war that cost hundreds of thousands of lives and crushed Syria under an oppressive dictatorship, Assad’s army finally fell. For the first time in 54 years, the Assad family was ousted.

The architect of that lightning offensive was Abu Mohammad al‑Julani, real name Ahmed al‑Sharaa. Once an al‑Qaeda operative in Idlib, he surprised the world by turning his insurgency into governance. He rebranded, swapped the turban for a suit, and by January 29, 2025, the rebel leader took the oath as Syria’s interim president, now Syria’s most powerful man

Washington and Brussels Test the Water

To the shock of cable‑news panels, Donald Trump flew to Riyadh on May 14 and shook al‑Sharaa’s hand. The former U.S. president promised to suspend the Caesar sanctions if Damascus agreed to secure its borders, pushing Iran out , and sit down with Israel for peace talks. Critics screamed “appeasement”; Trump said flatly: “They have endured enough disasters, wars, and killing.”

Europe did the same. Emmanuel Macron invited al-Sharaa to Paris, the EU opened its donor summit to Syrian ministers, and Italy lobbied for a one-year freeze on sanctions. The message from the West is blunt: break free of Russia and Iran, and reconstruction funds will flow. Stay in the Axis of Resistance, and you rot in rubble.

President Donald Trump with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and President of Syria Ahmed al-Sharaa, Wikimedia

The Druze Flashpoint and Israel’s Dramatic Entry

Then came Sweida. Last week, what started as a local clash between Druze villagers and Sunni Bedouin tribesmen exploded into a bloodbath. Within three days, 321 Druze men, women, and children were butchered. Entire neighborhoods were massacred. Instead of restoring order, al‑Julani’s new Syrian army sent tanks barreling toward the south. Israel could not sit quietly, knowing that there is an ongoing genocide on its northern border in Syria.

Israel issued a direct warning to al‑Julani’s government: pull your tanks back from Sweida or face consequences. The warning was ignored. So Israel acted. On July 16, Israeli jets struck Damascus with clinical precision. Four floors of the Syrian Ministry of Defense turned to rubble. The windows of the presidential palace shook. The message was already clear: you do not touch our Druze brothers and sisters and expect silence.

There are over 100,000 Druze in Israel. They serve in the IDF, in the border police, as judges, parliament members, and doctors. Their loyalty is not a footnote; it’s foundational. This isn’t a minority to be "tolerated." This is a people with ancient ties. Jethro, Moses’ father-in-law and spiritual advisor, was a Druze community. That covenant is alive today. Israel doesn’t watch when Druze blood is spilled—it responds.

Does That Kill the Peace Track?

Many pundits say yes. They argue no Syrian leader can sign a treaty while the smoke from Israeli airstrikes in the Syrian capital are still seen. They add that Damascus will never concede the Golan, nor forgive the humiliation. I disagree.

1. Al‑Sharaa needs cash and legitimacy. He cannot rebuild Syria or keep the calm without billions of dollars in foreign aid. President Trump has set one clear condition: make peace with Israel and kick Iran out.

2. Iran is weaker than ever. Hezbollah’s command chain is shattered, the IRGC lost dozens of officers in earlier Israeli raids, and post‑Assad Syria no longer feels indebted to Tehran.

3. Israel wants quiet borders. The war in Gaza continues, Hezbollah might try to rebuild itself in Lebanon since the Lebanese army is weak, and the IDF would love nothing more than a demilitarized buffer to its northeast. A deal that keeps Iranian missiles out of Quneitra is worth the talks.

   
   

   

   Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, during the celebration of the revolution's victory and the lifting of sanctions. Syria, May 27, 2025. (Shutterstock)

   
   

The Remaining Landmines

• The Golan file. Israel annexed it in 1981 and will not hand the plateau over. Creative sovereignty arrangements, industrial zones, guaranteed water rights, and tourism revenue sharing might square the circle, but of course, negotiation needs to start.

• Al‑Sharaa’s bloody résumé. The families of American soldiers killed by al‑Qaeda in Iraq have not forgotten his past.

• Russian meddling. Putin is furious. Moscow lost its only Mediterranean client overnight. They will surely not be happy about Syria making deals with the West.

So—Will They Sign?

Not this summer. But the math has changed:

• Assad is gone.

• Iran is broke.

• Al‑Sharaa craves recognition.

  
  

I know al‑Julani’s past. It’s ugly. We do not know his future, and that uncertainty is exactly what smart diplomacy exploits. If Trump, the EU, and Israel keep the pressure high and the incentives clear, the man who once pledged allegiance to al‑Qaeda might, out of sheer self‑interest, sign the most unlikely peace of the century.

Hope is not a strategy, but strategies die without hope.