Will Israel and Saudi Arabia Make Peace Before 2026?

What if the keeper of Islam’s holiest sites, the same kingdom that once banned Jews, funded anti-Israel textbooks, and refused to even say the word “Israel”- decided to make peace with the Jewish state? Not secretly. Not in the shadows. But full-on, in your face, televised normalization. Embassies. Direct flights. Business deals. Official handshakes between Jerusalem and Riyadh.

That would be one of the biggest geopolitical flips in modern history. I think it's a question of when, not if.

Closeup of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia wearing traditional headdress and robes, looking forward with a serious expression, Colfronia, U.S, October 09, 2025 (Shutterstock)

What Peace with Saudi Arabia Really Means

Saudi Arabia is not just an oil-rich monarchy. It’s the gatekeeper of Sunni Islam, the political heavyweight of the Arab League, and the global epicenter of Islamic influence. When Riyadh moves, the rest of the Muslim world pays attention.

So when Israel made peace with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco under the Abraham Accords, it was powerful, and definitely happened with the green light from Saudi Arabia, the largest country in the Middle East.

But If Saudi Arabia normalizes with Israel, the Arab-Israeli conflict is effectively over.

That’s what’s at stake.

Why Israel Wants This Deal

Israel has everything to gain.

First, security. Saudi Arabia shares Israel’s concern of Iran. Both countries know that the mullahs in Tehran are the region’s most dangerous force. An alliance with Saudi Arabia locks in a united front against Iran, from the Red Sea to the Gulf.

Second, legitimacy. Even though Israel has formal ties with Egypt and Jordan, those relationships are cold. But peace with Saudi Arabia? That’s symbolic. That’s historic. It says to the entire Islamic world: the Jewish state is here to stay.

Third, economy. Israel’s tech, energy, and defense sectors are booming. Saudi Arabia wants them. Israel wants access to Saudi capital, tourism, and massive infrastructure projects. The economic upside is staggering.

Map of Saudi Arabia in the Middle East (Shutterstock)

But comes with a price tag.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) knows what he is doing.

He sees normalization with Israel not as a gift, but as leverage, first of all the Arab world understands that the door to the West is Israel, and MBS understands that the Saudi oil is not there forever and he has a vision to modernize Saudi Arabia and create other streams of income - especially hi-tech and technology, but also tourism. And the most obvious of all is to counter the Islamic Republic of Iran that competes with Saudi Arabia over influence on the Muslim world and has territorial ambitions.

So what’s on the Saudi Crown Prince list?

1. Movement on the Palestinian Issue.

This is non-negotiable. Saudi Arabia said it will only make peace with Israel if the latter guarantees to create the path for a Palestinian state. The question lies in what does it mean. Do they demand the creation of a Palestinian state, or merely the direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. And then there is the Judea and Samaria question - many in Israel, including myself, see this as an undivided part of Israel.

2. American Security Guarantees.

The Saudis want a defense pact with the United States. Not just weapons, they already get those. They want ironcladguarantees that if Iran ever strikes, the U.S. will strike back.

And they want advanced weapons systems that Washington has so far only given to its most trusted allies. Here they have a lot to gain from relations with Israel that is at the forefront of military technology.

3. Nuclear Energy.

Saudi Arabia wants a civilian nuclear program, and some say they want to keep the door open to nuclear weapons in the future. The U.S. and Israel are nervous about this, and rightly so.

If Israel agrees to a deal that allows Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, even under tight controls, Iran may claim that it's double standards to prevent Tehran from developing its nuclear program, and pretend it's also for "civilian" purposes.

The Hamas factor

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched one of the most brutal terror attacks in Israel’s history, not just to kill Jews, but to kill diplomacy. Behind the massacre was a strategic calculation: stop the growing momentum toward peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Leaked documents and intercepted messages revealed that Hamas leadership was panicked about how close the Saudis were to recognizing Israel.

In one internal memo, Yahya Sinwar reportedly warned that normalization “would open the door for the majority of Arab and Islamic countries to follow the same path.” Even former President Biden said it out loud: “The Saudis wanted to recognize Israel… Hamas knew I was about to sit down with the Saudis.”

The October 7 attack was not just a war crime. It was a deliberate attempt to blow up the most significant diplomatic breakthrough in a generation, because Hamas knows that if Israel and Saudi Arabia make peace, the ideology they peddle dies with it.

Aerial view of Riyadh, capital of Saudi Arabia (Shutterstock)

Could It Really Happen Before 2026?

It’s possible. The three sides, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S., have all said publicly that it’s on the table. But “on the table” is not the same as “done.”

For this deal to go through, three things must happen according to what I understand:

1. According to the Saudis, Israel’s leadership will need to make meaningful gestures on the Palestinian issue. That could include policy shifts, diplomatic statements, or steps that signal a willingness to engage.

2. MBS must decide he’s ready to absorb the heat. He has to believe that the benefits of peace with Israel are worth the backlash from hardliners.

3. The U.S. must offer both sides enough to make the risk worth it. Defense deals, nuclear terms, diplomatic cover, it all has to be perfectly calibrated so it doesn't put Israel at risk.

   
   

The Bible says in Isaiah 19:25, “Blessed be Egypt my people, and Assyria the work of my hands, and Israel mine inheritance.” It’s a vision of peace among enemies, Egypt, Assyria (modern Iraq and Syria), and Israel. It’s not a fantasy. It’s a promise.

Peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be the closest thing we’ve seen to that prophecy in modern times.

But peace is not a press release. It’s not a handshake for the cameras. It's a deep understanding to move forward together and put differences aside for the betterment of future generations to live in peace. If Israel and Saudi Arabia get this right, it could redefine the Middle East. So will it happen before 2026? Let me know in the comments if you think it will happen.