Why President Trump Gave Iran Another Chance
- Hananya Naftali
- 8 hours ago
- 5 min read
Over the past five months, the US has launched more than a dozen nights of airstrikes against Iran, watched Tehran attack American soldiers in Jordan and Kuwait, and seen the Strait of Hormuz nearly shut down, choking global oil supplies and sending prices through the roof. Trump had authorized what he himself described as the biggest attack since World War Two. The planes were ready. The targets were locked in. And then, at the last second, he called it off again, claiming Iran had asked for a deal. Iran immediately denied it.
This is not the first time this has happened. Trump has issued ultimatum after ultimatum, and Iran has learned that if they wait long enough, he blinks. So why does Trump keep giving them another chance?
The simplest answer is oil. When the Strait of Hormuz is closed or threatened, oil prices spike. That hits American consumers at the gas pump, and Trump knows it. One of his core promises to the American people was bringing down the cost of living. A massive military strike on Iran that escalates into a prolonged war would send oil prices to levels that would mean bad news for the average American family. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Tuesday that a deal to reopen the strait could come as soon as "today or tomorrow." The moment those words hit the market, oil prices reversed sharply. That is not a coincidence. The economic pressure of a closed Hormuz is a weapon Iran has been using against Trump, and it is working. Every time a deal seems possible, markets calm down. Every time it falls apart, they spike. Trump is caught between wanting to destroy Iran's nuclear program and not wanting to blow up the US economy in the process.
The Missile Stockpile Reality
Sources told Reuters that the US has used up virtually all of its global stockpile of long range precision missiles during this conflict. These are the weapons that allow the US to strike targets from a safe distance without risking pilots. Without them, any major new offensive against Iran would require riskier piloted bombing missions. This is a significant constraint on American military options right now. It does not mean the US cannot strike Iran. It means the cost and risk of doing so are much higher than they were five months ago. Trump may be buying time for the military to resupply before launching a truly decisive blow. I do have to say that the US denied those reports as false, but I want to give the full picture of what is being said.
Trump also genuinely believes he can get a deal. He has said repeatedly that he wants Iran to survive and prosper, just without nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other Gulf states have been calling him personally, urging restraint and telling him a deal is within reach. These are US allies with enormous economic relationships with America. When they tell Trump to hold off, he listens (by the way, I wonder why Tucker Carlson doesn't mention their "influence" on decision-making). Qatar confirmed that its diplomats are working with Pakistan and Oman as mediators, exchanging drafts between Washington and Tehran. The diplomatic machinery is moving, even if Iran publicly denies it. Trump is betting that the combination of military pressure, economic pain from the war, and regional diplomacy will eventually force Iran to the table on terms that are acceptable.
What Iran is Actually Doing
The IRGC launched drone attacks on a US military base in Kuwait just this week. A cargo vessel was hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman. Iran backed Houthis in Yemen sank an Indian flagged ship near Yemeni waters. Iran's proxies, which had been severely weakened over the past year, are starting to rebuild. Hezbollah is regrouping in Lebanon. Iraqi militias are active again. Iran is using every day of delay to strengthen its position and test how far it can push before Trump actually follows through. This is a calculated strategy, and so far it has been effective.
For Israel, this situation is both encouraging and frustrating. On one hand, the US and Israel together have already achieved something historic. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint US and Israeli strike in February. Iran's air defenses and conventional military capabilities have been severely degraded. The threat that Iran posed to Israel just one year ago is dramatically diminished. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called his recent meeting with Trump one of the best they have ever had. The two countries are aligned on the ultimate goal of preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.
On the other hand, Israel is watching as Trump repeatedly pulls back from the decisive blow that would end the Iranian nuclear threat permanently. Netanyahu has been clear that Israel will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is fully disarmed. He has been equally clear that the Iranian nuclear program must be eliminated, not just paused. A 60 day extension of a ceasefire agreement, which is reportedly what is currently on the table, does not accomplish that. It just kicks the can down the road and gives Iran more time to rebuild.
The Israel Defense Forces continue to operate in Gaza, targeting Hamas commanders and weapons depots. Former hostage Rom Braslavski recently praised the military for eliminating the Islamic Jihad commander who had held him captive. These are real victories on the ground. But the bigger picture requires a permanent resolution to the Iranian threat, not another temporary patch.
Trump is giving Iran another chance because he is balancing competing pressures: oil prices, missile stockpiles, allied diplomacy, and his own desire to be the president who made the big deal.
Iran knows all of this and is exploiting every single one of those pressure points. The question is whether Trump's patience will eventually run out for real, or whether Iran will successfully drag out negotiations long enough to rebuild its strength.
For those of us who stand with Israel, the answer matters enormously. A weak deal that leaves Iran's nuclear infrastructure intact and its proxy network recovering is not a victory. It is a delayed catastrophe. Israel has paid an enormous price over the past three years to reach this moment of leverage. That leverage must be used to achieve a permanent, verifiable end to the Iranian nuclear threat.